Election results in India have the ability to induce pompous celebrations, with the supporters of the winning party dancing, bursting crackers, & distributing sweets. Elections are no less festivals in India. Huge rallies, witty speeches, blame games have been an inextricable part of election campaigns. Apart from this, switching sides & forging unpleasant, uncanny alliances are common practices. The limelight & media coverage of elections minify any other event. With media houses passionately covering rallies & tracking political events, hardly anything is broadcast other than content pertaining to elections.
Election period is the testing time for those in power. If the results favor them they have performed as per people’s expectations, if not then they have failed to perform. Replacement does not mean freedom from responsibilities but it adds another important job on the “to do” list that is to check the malicious, anomalous, flaw-ridden policies of the new Government. In short to be in opposition is a huge responsibility.
Analysis of Election Results
The state assembly elections were held in 5 states viz. Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand on 40, 60, 117, 403 & 70 seats respectively. BJP emerged as the single largest party with landslide victory in U.P. While Punjab will be governed by Congress’s C.M. candidate for next 5 years. Suspense continues to prevail in Manipur & Goa, as both Congress and BJP claiming majority. Every speculation and exit poll report stands quashed by results in Uttar Pradesh. While AAP’s claim to win in Punjab turned false. Eventhough the two regions stole all the limelight, other three are equally important.
For detailed election results click here.
States are building blocks of Nation. Hence, the developments there would eventually affect the big picture. Here are some figures which portray a different picture of election results.
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In the above vote share % table of every state ( except Punjab ), BJP leads. Even in states where it trails in terms of seats, the vote share % is higher than the ones who lead. Hence, the party claims to be a major force in these states & is positive about upcoming state assembly elections.
The people of Punjab were fed-up of SAD-BJP coalition. Hence, the only viable option was INC headed by Capt. Amarinder Singh. AAP had failed to deliver in Delhi, and could not be relied upon for next 5 years. Meanwhile no pressure was put on Captain, and he had adequate resources and time to plan things according to his desires. The result is strong majority in Punjab for Indian National Congress.
Uttar Pradesh elections
Uttar Pradesh elections are also called “mini-National elections”. With 403 seats, it is the largest state assembly. Hence, holds immense importance. The incumbent SP government could not maintain law and order properly. Freebies would have worked if it were 2007 elections. But the voter has become smart now. Smart enough to distinguish between consequences of freebies and development policies. Moreover, the agenda of development was propagated effectively by BJP in the state, with PM Modi being the face of campaign. Fearing defeat, SP hence joined hands with INC and the alliance “UP ke ladke” was forged. The last nail in the coffin was struck and people rejected SP and chose BJP.
BJP played smart in Uttarakhand. The rebel politicians from the INC were absorbed in the party before elections. Hence, BJP had a sure victory in the state.
Dead-locks of uncertainty were broken when BJP declared that it had forged alliance with 8 MLAs — 3 from MGP, 3 from Goa Forward and 2 independent candidates — to take the count from 13 to 21. Manohar Parrikar has been declared as the Chief Ministerial candidate. Parrikar will take oath for his 2nd term as Goa’s Chief Minister.
BJP has claimed support of National People’s Party (4 MLAs), Naga People’s Front (4), LJP (1) and two others, taking the total tally to 32 from present 21 seats. Former editor and minister Nongthombam Biren has been chosen as the Chief Ministerial candidate by the party.
Effects of election results
Elections results to affect Presidential elections
With the tenure of Hon’ble President and Vice-President expiring this year, the stage for Presidential elections is set. Anticipated to take place in the month of July, to be precise before 25 July 2017, Presidential elections participation of electoral college. Electoral college consists of elected members of the Parliament, State assemblies and Union territories of Delhi and Puducherry. Hence votes of MLAs, MPs are considered. The details of no. of voters and votes are governed by the 84th amendment. For this purpose 1971 census is used and will continue to be used until 2026.
The formula used for determining the no. of votes held by MLAs is:
Value of an MLA vote = (Total population of state or UT)/(Total no of elected members of legislature X 1000)
For instance in Arunanchal Pradesh population as per 1971 census is 467,511 and the no. of elected members of legislative assembly is 60. Hence value of each MLA vote is 8. Total value of votes for the state comes out to be 480. Each state has separate value of the vote of each MLA as no. of seats and population vary in each state.
The formula used for determining the value of an MP vote is:
Value of an MP vote = ( Sum of vote value of elected members of all legislatures)/(Sum of elected members of Parliament)
To read in detail about proportional representation system in Presidential election download the pdf.
The total votes come out to be 10,98,882 assigned to 4896 voters. Hence to win a seat in proportional representation system, the first preference votes required should be above the fixed quota limit. In case of Presidential elections 50% vote share is a viable percentage. NDA led by BJP is still short of 2.5% with U.P. elections adding 6% to the previous number i.e 41%. Hence, the U.P. election results have been a game changer for the BJP in the next Presidential election.
Indications for 2019
Recent election results have projected BJP as the emerging political behemoth in the country. With nearly three years of present government’s tenure on the verge of culmination, the nation will witness General elections again in 2019. Hence, elections in 5 assemblies are believed to be forecast or a sort of exit poll for General elections 2017. And the majority vote share party is anticipated to bag maximum number of seats in 2019.
For non-believers in Modi wave, the election results are no less than a bang on the face. Astonishing percentage of vote share of BJP in all five states has forced even the opposition leaders to admit the presence of Modi Wave in the country. Omar Obdullah’s tweet is a testimony to aforesaid statement, “In a nutshell there is no leader today with a pan India acceptability who can take on Modi & the BJP in 2019. At this rate we might as well forget 2019 & start planning/hoping for 2024.”
Bury your doubts and believe in Modi Wave.
Amassing the deficient majority in Rajya Sabha
By year 2018, 38 seats in Rajya Sabha will fall vacant in 8 states. 6 of these states have NDA led strong governments. Hence addition of 38 seats in total tally will help inching close towards majority in the Upper House. The consequence would be ease in passing crucial bills in Rajya Sabha and smooth functioning of the house. BJP led NDA lacks majority in the Upper House with total of 74 members. Clean sweep in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand have added more numbers to the existing share in electoral college and representation in state assemblies. Hence, all these effects will facilitate BJP in amassing majority in Rajya Sabha.