Coalition Government is the most unstable form of government. Essentially an outcome of the multi-party system, coalitions are formed either between allies or common enemies of a large power. To dodge political instability, they sometimes hit into the face of a mismatched ideology. The stronger force molds the weaker into its own cast of discretion. The equals have tussle in case of disagreement. Politics in India have been turbulent after 2014 General elections. Switching sides, cross-voting, etc have now become common. The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar is also an outcome of the 2014 General elections.
Saffron is the Colour
BJP under Amit Shah has become invincible. BJP led NDA is currently reigning over 18 states. It has minified every other national party in terms of popularity and vote share. Several coalitions were fielded against it, majority of which have collapsed. RJD – JD(U) Mahagathbandhan is the latest victim.
Janta Dal (United) supremo Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janta Dal supremo Lalu Yadav had forged alliance back in 2015 to form a front against BJP led NDA. On the bedrock of the (alliance) mahagathbandhan this government in Bihar was formed. Nitish Kumar leading the front had Tejaswi Yadav as Dy. CM in the coalition government. But with the unearthing of the land-for-hotel scam the foundation of the mega-coalition shook. The CBI raids had sent tremors to the grand alliance floors. The only way out according to JD(U) was Dy. CM Tejaswi Yadav’s resignation. But the 2-in -Command had some other plans. The stubborn attitude of Tejaswi Yadav devitalized the spirit and zeal of the, mega-coalition. Every action of CBI increased the pressure on the already critical alliance, and obdurate attitude of Dy CM finally forced the JD(U) to break the mahagathbandhan.
Political Jilt – Ethical or Deceitful
BJP’s share in 2015 Bihar assembly election result was 22% while that of RJD was 37%. The numbers reflect the political hate that both parties received, i.e. 78% and 63% respectively. The logic that the protagonists of the RJD-JD(U) alliance put forth is that JD(U) has cheated the voters of Bihar. But the vote share percentages portray a different picture. BJP’s vote share percentage in 2015 assembly elections was 24.4%, RJD’s was 18.4% and JD(U)’s was 16.8%. The combined percentage of RJD and JD(U) is 35.2% while that of BJP-JD(U) is 41.2% , 7% more than the RJD-JD(U) alliance. Even if INC is included in the grand alliance, the vote share percentage is still less than that of the BJP-JD(U) alliance. Hence the picture is clear and candid. The floor test in the Bihar legislative assembly is yet another testimony to the fact that the voters have not been cheated.
Course of Action Post Split
Alliances and coalitions are not excogitated in heaven. Circumstances frame them. Politics is all about long-term planning. After winning an election in 2015, you have to devise a plan from 21 Nov 2015 itself to win the 2020 elections. The players in your team need not to be the same. Switching sides is common in politics and it should not surprise or annoy anyone. The multi-party system can never get rid of this complication. JD(U) switching sides would not have drawn such criticism if it had joined some party other than BJP. Since Saffron is trending country-wide backed by (as some claim vicious) ideology of RSS, criticism was inevitable.
Disfigurement of the political image of party fetches no votes but criticism and zero count at EVMs. Jumping into the pond of blames (of corruption) along with your partner is no sanity. The best option is to part ways or join someone who has a better image. And BJP was indeed a better option than RJD.
Consequences of BJP-JD(U) alliance
General Elections 2019
General elections 2019 are being anticipated as a single-man show. With critics placing their bets on Narendra Modi, the opposition before BJP-JD(U) alliance saw Nitish Kumar as the ablest opponent against the behemoth – BJP. Unfortunately, with the exit of JD(U) form mahagathbandhan the opposition has lost all hopes and courage to stand against the NDA. The national politics has reduced to single-party system to some extent. With dwindling congress, shy AAP, and more parties boarding the NDA craft, there is no opposition to BJP led NDA in general elections 2019 as of now.
BJP – The Latest National Trend
Under the president-ship of Amit Shah, the party has witnessed unprecedented success. Never had BJP formed government in 19 states. Undoubtedly Amit Shah is the most successful party leader of BJP till now. With certain other state parties rumored to join NDA, the development would add into the success of BJP.